How Many LOIs Does It Take to Get a Deal? The Math
Updated June 17, 2026
Most investors close one deal for every 500 to 2,000 LOIs sent, depending on pricing accuracy, targeting, and follow-up discipline. The math: a 2% reply rate times a 40% reply-to-negotiation rate times a 10% negotiation-to-contract rate puts roughly 1 deal per 1,250 offers. Tightening any stage shrinks the number — and follow-up moves it more than raw volume does.
How many LOIs does it take to get a deal is the question every investor wants a clean number for, and the honest answer is a range: somewhere between 500 and 2,000 offers per closed deal for most operators. That spread isn't vagueness — it's the difference between a tight, well-targeted, well-followed-up campaign and a sloppy one.
The useful move isn't memorizing a number; it's understanding the funnel that produces it. Once you can see which stage is leaking, you know whether to send more, price better, or follow up harder. Here's the math.
The funnel math, stage by stage
A deal is the product of four conversion rates multiplied together. Start with offers sent. A reply rate (call it 2%) gives you replies. A reply-to-live-negotiation rate (around 40%, since plenty of replies are polite declines) gives you real conversations. A negotiation-to-contract rate (around 10%) gives you signed deals. Multiply 2% x 40% x 10% and you get roughly 0.08% — about one deal per 1,250 offers.
That's a middle-of-the-road campaign. The point of laying it out as a chain is that each link is independently improvable, and because they multiply, a modest gain at two stages compounds. Lifting the reply rate to 3% and the negotiation-to-contract rate to 13% drops the requirement from ~1,250 offers per deal to about ~640 — nearly half — without sending a single extra LOI.
| Scenario | Reply rate | Reply to negotiation | Negotiation to contract | Offers per deal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sloppy | 1% | 30% | 8% | ~4,170 |
| Average | 2% | 40% | 10% | ~1,250 |
| Dialed in | 3% | 45% | 12% | ~620 |
| Elite follow-up | 3% | 55% | 15% | ~400 |
How the offers-per-deal number changes with the funnel
Turning the rate into a weekly volume target
Once you know your offers-per-deal number, deal goals become a sending math problem. If you're at the average (~1,250 offers per deal) and you want two deals a month, you need roughly 2,500 offers a month — about 600 a week. If you tighten the funnel to ~620 offers per deal, the same two deals need only ~1,250 offers a month.
This is why the volume-versus-quality debate is a false choice. You set a volume floor that makes your goal mathematically possible, then you work the conversion rates to lower the floor over time. Volume buys you into the game; conversion is what makes it cheap.
Why follow-up beats sending more
When the offers-per-deal number is too high, the instinct is to send more. Usually the cheaper fix is the middle of the funnel — the reply-to-negotiation and negotiation-to-contract stages — because that's where deals quietly die when follow-up is inconsistent. A reply you never worked is a deal you paid to generate and then threw away.
Automated follow-up is what lets a solo operator hold elite conversion rates at high volume — the regime that drops you toward 400 offers per deal. BILT CRM works each reply and re-touches non-responders without a human tracking spreadsheets, so the conversion rates in your funnel reflect persistence rather than whatever you had time to chase. Sending more offers raises your cost; converting more of them lowers it.
Frequently asked
How many LOIs do I need to send to get one deal?
For most investors, 500 to 2,000 offers per closed deal. A middle-of-the-road campaign — 2% reply rate, 40% of replies becoming negotiations, 10% of those signing — works out to roughly one deal per 1,250 offers. Tighter pricing and better follow-up can cut that below 600.
How do I calculate my own offers-per-deal number?
Multiply your four funnel rates: reply rate, reply-to-negotiation rate, negotiation-to-contract rate. Divide one by the product. If you reply at 2%, negotiate 40% of replies, and contract 10% of negotiations, that's 0.0008, so one deal per ~1,250 offers. Track each stage so you know which one to improve.
Is it better to send more LOIs or improve conversion?
Improve conversion first — it's almost always cheaper. The funnel rates multiply, so small gains at two stages compound, and the middle of the funnel (working replies, persistent follow-up) is where most deals leak. Add volume once your conversion is solid, not as a substitute for fixing it.
How many LOIs per week should I send to close two deals a month?
Depends on your offers-per-deal number. At the average ~1,250 per deal, two deals a month needs about 2,500 offers monthly, or roughly 600 a week. Tighten the funnel to ~620 per deal and the same two deals need only about 1,250 offers a month.
The takeaway
Plan on 500 to 2,000 LOIs per closed deal, with the exact number set by four funnel rates multiplied together — reply, reply-to-negotiation, and negotiation-to-contract. Because they compound, modest conversion gains can halve your offers-per-deal without sending more. The cheapest lever is almost always the middle of the funnel: working every reply and re-touching non-responders, which is exactly what automated follow-up protects.